Blue chip stocks – not a poker game


blue-chip-stockInvesting in conservative blue chip stocks may not have the allure of a hot high-tech investment, but it can be highly rewarding nonetheless, as good quality stocks have outperformed other investment classes over the long term.

Historically, investing in stocks has generated a return, over time, of between 11 and 15 percent annually depending how aggressive you are. Stocks outperform other investments since they incur more risk. Stock investors are at the bottom of the corporate “food chain.” First, companies have to pay their employees and suppliers. Then they pay their bondholders. After this come the preferred shareholders. Companies have an obligation to pay all these stakeholders first, and if there is money leftover it is paid to the stockholders through dividends or retained earnings. Sometimes there is a lot of money left over for stockholders, and in other cases there isn’t. Thus, investing in stocks is risky because investors never know exactly what they are going to receive for their investment.

What are the attractions of blue chip stocks?

1. Great long-term rates of return.

2. Unlike mutual funds, another relatively safe, long term investment category, there are no ongoing fees.

3. You become a owner of a company.

So much for the benefits – what about the risks?

1. Some investors can’t tolerate both the risk associated with investing in the stock market and the risk associated with investing in one company. Not all blue chips are created equal.

2. If you don’t have the time and skill to identify a good quality company at a fair price don’t invest directly. Rather, you should consider a good mutual fund.

Selecting a blue chip company is only part of the battle – determining the appropriate price is the other. Theoretically, the value of a stock is the present value of all future cash flows discounted at the appropriate discount rate. However, like most theoretical answers, this doesn’t fully explain reality. In reality supply and demand for a stock sets the stock’s daily price, and demand for a stock will increase or decrease depending of the outlook for a company. Thus, stock prices are driven by investor expectations for a company, the more favorable the expectations the better the stock price. In short, the stock market is a voting machine and much of the time it is voting based on investors’ fear or greed, not on their rational assessments of value. Stock prices can swing widely in the short-term but they eventually converge to their intrinsic value over the long-term.

Investors should look at good companies with great expectations that are not yet imbedded in the price of a stock.


Entities in the trading system in Indian Stock Markets

National_Stock_exchange_MumbaiThere are four entities in the trading system. Trading members, clearing members, professional
clearing members and participants.

1. Trading members: Trading members are members of NSE. They can trade either on their own
account or on behalf of their clients including participants. The exchange assigns a Trading member
ID to each trading member. Each trading member can have more than one user. The number of
users allowed for each trading member is notifi ed by the exchange from time to time. Each user
of a trading member must be registered with the exchange and is assigned an unique user ID. The
unique trading member ID functions as a reference for all orders/trades of different users. This ID is
common for all users of a particular trading member. It is the responsibility of the trading member
to maintain adequate control over persons having access to the fi rm’s User IDs.

2. Clearing members: Clearing members are members of NSCCL. They carry out risk management
activities and confi rmation/inquiry of trades through the trading system.

3. Professional clearing members: A professional clearing members is a clearing member who is not
a trading member. Typically, banks and custodians become professional clearing members and clear and settle for their trading members.

4. Participants: A participant is a client of trading members like financial institutions. These clients
may trade through multiple trading members but settle through a single clearing member


About Day Trading Online


penny-stocks-300x249It is one of the strongest currencies in the world, but the whole economy is not as powerful. It fluctuates up and down, along with trends in privately and publicly-owned companies. England’s economy has experienced some very high points, but has also experienced some low points as well.

No matter where you live, you must carefully consider your options before you try to earn a return on your investment; and England is no exception to that rule. But some people in the UK still like to take a risk with their money and one of these risks is day trading online.

Day trading online the process of buying and selling shares over the Internet at short notice. Day trading online has been seen by many as a way to get rich quick, but that isn’t the half of it. Statistics show that online day traders are having a rough ride, with 70% of online day traders losing money. So if you are looking at getting into the world of online day trading, then you should know the risks that are attached to the service.

But when you are in the world of online day trading then you will get some excellent services given to you. One of these services is a chat room, where you can talk to other buyers and sellers. This is a good way to find out what the next big time company might be, but you have to know if this person is “share ramping,” which is the process of talking up the shares artificially. So you have to take the risk of guessing if this person is correct or not and if the information hasn’t been authorized.

These days, online trading websites are somewhat risky and can be dangerous. But if you are a professional when it comes to buying and selling shares, then you will know all about the risks and you can make yourself a tidy profit. Day trading online should not be used by beginners, but more used by people that are heavily experienced in the stock market world.


Fair Value of A Common Stock


valueA lot of discussions have been devoted towards finding fair value of an investment. The goal of every investors is to find undervalued investment and sell it when it reaches fair value. Admittedly, this is the hardest part of investing. So, what is fair value? Fair value is a point where the price of an investment reflect its earning power.

Fair value is relative and it depends on other factors beyond the investors’ control. In here, we will discuss on calculating fair value within our own boundary of control. In short, calculating fair value of an investment depends on the rate of return expected and the risk taken to achieve that return. Higher risk needs higher reward. It is quite simple.

So, what asset constitute lower risk investments? We can only compare. First thing that comes out of my mind is Certificate of Deposit (CD). You are guaranteed certain return (interest rate), if you can hold for a certain pre-determined time frame. You would never lose your principal at the end of the time frame.

The next low risk investment is Treasury Bond. This is the bond issued by the United States government, which is deemed to be safest in the world. There are certain risks associated with the small fluctuation in the bond price. However, if you held the bond until maturity, you are guaranteed certain rate of return. Your rate of return depends to certain extent on the price that you bought the bond at.

The next higher risk investment is buying common stock. This is what we are going to focus more here. It is considered higher risk than the two types of investments mentioned previously because you have a higher chance of losing money on your investments. Earlier, we established that higher risk needs higher reward. Therefore, stock investing requires a higher reward.

So, what does this have anything to do with fair value? Quite simply, the price of a common stock that we buy must gives us a higher annual return than bonds or CD. For example if a CD gives you a 3% return, treasury bonds give you a 4% return, then you would want your stock gives you a higher return of perhaps 6%.

What does it means for a stock to give investor a return of 6%? It never really say it, doesn’t it? You are partly right. While it is not explicitly shown, you can do a little digging and find out how much the return of your stock investment would be. For example, if your Certificate of Deposit (CD) gives you a 2% annual return, for $ 100 of investment, you would earn $ 2 every year. Let’s assume that you want your stock to give you a return of 6%, which is higher than CD or treasury bond. This implies for every $ 100 invested in common stock, it needs to give us a return of $ 6 annually.

Where can we get this information? You can get it on Yahoo! Finance or other financial publications. All we need to do is find the share price of a common stock and the profit per share (also known as earning per share) of that particular stock. Let’s use an example to illustrate my point. Magna International Inc. (MGA) is expected to post a profit of $ 6.95 per share for fiscal year 2005. Recently, the share is trading at $ 73.00. The annual return of buying Magna stock is therefore $6.95 divided by its share price $ 73.00. This gives us a return of 9.5%.

Will Magna continue to give investors a 9.5 % return year after year? It depends. If the stock price rises, Magna will return less than 9.5 % annually. What else? Well, Magna might not constantly produce the same amount of profit year after year. It might even produce a loss! So, you see, stock investing is inherently risky because there are two moving part in the equation. Price of the common stock and the profits produced by the company itself. That is the reason why investor need to aim for higher return when choosing their stock investment.

All right. So, let’s move on to the crucial thing in investing in common stock. What is the fair value of Magna stock assuming a constant profit of $ 6.95 per share? Personally, I assign fair value of a common stock to be at least 2% above the rate of Treasury bond. Please note that I am using the 10 year bond here. Recently, treasury bond can give us a 4 % return. Therefore, the fair value of Magna common stock is when it can give me a return of 6%

So, what is the fair value of Magna common stock in this case? For a profit of $ 6.95 per share, the fair value of Magna common stock is $115.80 per share. That’s right. At $ 115.80 per share, Magna common stock will return investors 6% annually. Having said that, we should never buy a common stock at fair value. Why? Because our investing purpose is to make money. If we buy stocks at fair value, then when do we profit from it? Do we expect to sell it when it is overvalued? Sure, it would be nice if we can do that all the time. But to be conservative, let’s not bank on our stocks reaching overvalued level.

There you go. I have explained how to calculate fair value in a common stock. Of course, the $ 6.95 per share profit figure is the expectation of profit compiled by Yahoo! Finance. It is not in any way an endorsement to buy Magna common stock. You should do your own calculation to verify that number.


Active Stock Market Timing


stock-market-timingMuch has been written about the virtues and dangers of active stock market trading, or “market timing.”

Most of the pundits and so called “experts” will tell you that stock market timing doesn’t work, that it’s dangerous, and that “buy and hold” is the best and only way to invest.

But this conventional wisdom is patently untrue.  Here are the facts based on my research and extensive real time experience.

If you want to be a successful stock market timer, you need three key elements:

1.  A system that actually works.

2.  Discipline to follow the system.

3.  Patience to stick with the system long enough to make it work for you.

And it’s tough to do all three.

Here’s why:

Most market timing systems don’t work.  Or don’t work consistently enough to be valid.  Some will work in trending markets but get slaughtered during flat times.  Most systems don’t work in all markets.

Investors lack the discipline to follow a proven system.  Once an investor finds a viable program, he or she needs the discipline to follow it.  Sadly, some either can’t or won’t do that.  When they let their own judgment or intuitions interfere, they don’t get the results they want or could have enjoyed by simply following the buy and sell signals they receive.

Investors lack the patience to stick with their system. Many investors are constantly in search of the Holy Grail, a program that never loses a trade.  The fact is, no method will win every trade, and investors without patience will find themselves hopping from advisor to advisor with no rewards to show for their efforts.

However, there are a number of proven systems available that recognize these pitfalls and successfully time the market to massive profits year after year.  Anything you hear or read to the contrary is simply not true.  Wall Street has a vested interest in opposing stock market timing because it is a threat to their very existence.

Investors have two choices.  They can pursue the conventional wisdom of buy and hold and hope for the best, or the modern investor can educate himself and find a timing system with which he is comfortable to protect and grow his wealth.  There are a number of proven options available, but the absolute worst thing one can do is listen to the pundits who tell you that “stock market timing” doesn’t work.


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